FC 1906 Erlensee 0–0 Hanau 93: Result & Stats

FC 1906 Erlensee

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hanau 93

5/25/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 33Sportzentrum Erlensee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC 1906 Erlensee51%

×Draw21%

Hanau 9328%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 1906 ErlenseeExpected goals in this matchHanau 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.55

FC 1906 Erlensee

2.12

Hanau 93

1.55

FC 1906 Erlensee creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

2.02

creates per match

1.48

1.63

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

FC 1906 Erlensee

2.02

Hanau 93

1.48

allows per match

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.63

Hanau 93

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Hanau 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 1906 Erlensee ↓

Hanau 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FC 1906 Erlensee or draw

72%

FC 1906 Erlensee or Hanau 93

79%

Draw or Hanau 93

49%

Winning margin

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+

30%

Hanau 93 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals

88%

FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals

62%

FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals

35%

Hanau 93 1+ goals

79%

Hanau 93 2+ goals

46%

Hanau 93 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)

64%

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Hanau 93 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Hanau 93 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hanau 93 attack 1.48 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more

51%

level

21%

Hanau 93 scores more

28%

FC 1906 Erlensee at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff