Hamrun Spartans 1–6 Ferencvarosi TC: Result & Stats

Hamrun Spartans

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Ferencvarosi TC

L. Montebello 89'

O. Kwabena 90'

B. Varga 65', 56', 53'

K. Zachariassen 51'

M. Abu Fani 3'

8/10/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hamrun Spartans19%

×Draw22%

Ferencvarosi TC59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamrun SpartansExpected goals in this matchFerencvarosi TC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.98

Hamrun Spartans

1.02

Ferencvarosi TC

1.98

Ferencvarosi TC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

2.29

1.67

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.33

Ferencvarosi TC

2.29

allows per match

Hamrun Spartans

1.67

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamrun Spartans ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hamrun Spartans or draw

41%

Hamrun Spartans or Ferencvarosi TC

78%

Draw or Ferencvarosi TC

81%

Winning margin

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

7%

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

64%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

27%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

8%

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

86%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

59%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

24%

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamrun Spartans at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamrun Spartans attack 1.33 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hamrun Spartans scores more

19%

level

22%

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

59%

Ferencvarosi TC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Varga

Ferencvarosi TC · F

9.3

Match Events

3'

31'

37'

45'

51'

53'

56'

57'

O. Kwabena← M. Ben Romdhane

57'

H. Wingo← Č. Makreckis

59'

L. Montebello← Jonny

59'

Eder← Y. Nenov

65'

Steve Borg

65'

B. Varga

66'

M. Knoester← I. Cissé

66'

T. Nguen← M. Abu Fani

70'

Luke Montebello

72'

J. Corbalan← J. Mbong

72'

N. Krstić← Elionay

78'

L. Pászka← C. Ramírez

89'

L. Montebello

90'

O. Kwabena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamrunFerencvarosi

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots19

3Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots19

4On Target13

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box15

7Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

386Total Passes578

335Accurate Passes510

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Hamrun Spartans vs Ferencvarosi TC

Ferencvarosi TC beat Hamrun Spartans 6-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 10, 2023.

Goals: M. Abu Fani (3'), K. Zachariassen (51'), B. Varga (53', 56', 65'), L. Montebello (89'), O. Kwabena (90').

Ferencvarosi TC controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.

Hamrun Spartans vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hamrun Spartans vs Ferencvarosi TC