Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Hamrun Spartans: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hamrun Spartans

B. Varga 69'

A. Traoré 41'

J. Mbong 6'

8/17/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC62%

×Draw23%

Hamrun Spartans15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchHamrun Spartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.72

Ferencvarosi TC

1.77

Hamrun Spartans

0.72

Ferencvarosi TC creates 146% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.73

0.71

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

2.00

Hamrun Spartans

0.73

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

Hamrun Spartans

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Hamrun Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

85%

Ferencvarosi TC or Hamrun Spartans

77%

Draw or Hamrun Spartans

38%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

36%

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

83%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

53%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

26%

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

51%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

16%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

81%

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Hamrun Spartans away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + Hamrun Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hamrun Spartans attack 0.73 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

62%

level

23%

Hamrun Spartans scores more

15%

Ferencvarosi TC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Abu Fani

Ferencvarosi TC · M

8.7

Match Events

6'

J. Mbong

26'

Joseph Mbong

38'

R. Camenzuli← J. Mbong

41'

46'

55'

61'

61'

K. Lisztes← A. Traoré

63'

Eder← Y. Nenov

63'

Jonny← L. Montebello

69'

B. Varga

74'

M. Abena← M. Knoester

80'

S. Borg← S. Paintsil

81'

A. Gojak← M. Abu Fani

81'

S. Attard← Elionay

90+2'

Juan Corbalan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerencvarosiHamrun

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots3

6Corners1

10Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots3

8On Target2

7Off Target1

4Blocked0

13Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

534Total Passes316

462Accurate Passes255

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

UEFA Europa Conference League: Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Hamrun Spartans

Ferencvarosi TC beat Hamrun Spartans 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Mbong (6'), A. Traoré (41'), B. Varga (69').

Ferencvarosi TC controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Hamrun Spartans — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Hamrun Spartans