Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammer SpVg vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
FT
2 – 1
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
12/5/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1524nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg46%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Rheine33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
2.03
Eintracht Rheine
1.71

Hammer SpVg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
67%
Hammer SpVg or Eintracht Rheine
79%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
54%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
26%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
87%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
60%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
33%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
51%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
58%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.03

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
46%
level
21%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
33%

Hammer SpVg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hammer SpVg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammer SpVg vs Eintracht Rheine

Hammer SpVg beat Eintracht Rheine 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at 24nexx Arena in Hamm.