Eintracht Rheine vs Hammer SpVg

Eintracht Rheine

CANC

17:00

Hammer SpVg

4/22/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Eintracht Rheine56%

×Draw22%

Hammer SpVg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht RheineExpected goals in this matchHammer SpVg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.15

Eintracht Rheine

1.96

Hammer SpVg

1.15

Eintracht Rheine creates 70% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

0.95

1.34

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.44

Hammer SpVg

0.95

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.34

Hammer SpVg

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Hammer SpVg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw

78%

Eintracht Rheine or Hammer SpVg

78%

Draw or Hammer SpVg

44%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+

33%

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals

58%

Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals

31%

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals

68%

Hammer SpVg 2+ goals

32%

Hammer SpVg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)

72%

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more

56%

level

22%

Hammer SpVg scores more

22%

Eintracht Rheine at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff