Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammer SpVg vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
CANC
13:00
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
4/25/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3424nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg35%
×Draw22%
ASC Dortmund43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
1.71
ASC Dortmund
1.92

ASC Dortmund creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
57%
Hammer SpVg or ASC Dortmund
78%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
65%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
17%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
82%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
51%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
24%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
85%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
57%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
45%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
35%
level
22%
ASC Dortmund scores more
43%

ASC Dortmund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hammer SpVg host ASC Dortmund

April 25, 2021: Hammer SpVg take on ASC Dortmund in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hammer SpVg host ASC Dortmund at 24nexx Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.