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ASC Dortmund vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
3 – 0
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
10/17/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ASC Dortmund63%
×Draw19%
Hammer SpVg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
2.32
Hammer SpVg
1.17

ASC Dortmund creates 98% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
2.17
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.38
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
82%
ASC Dortmund or Hammer SpVg
81%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
37%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
40%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
90%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
67%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
40%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
69%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
33%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
78%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.32

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
63%
level
19%
Hammer SpVg scores more
18%

ASC Dortmund at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: ASC Dortmund 3–0 Hammer SpVg

ASC Dortmund beat Hammer SpVg 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion Aplerbeck in Dortmund.