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Hammarby W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
Preview
17:00
Växjö W
Växjö W
7/31/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 12Hammarby IP
Big match
51%
Hammarby W
model favours
51%21%28%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby W51%
×Draw21%
Växjö W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
2.13
Växjö W
1.56

Hammarby W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.15
Växjö W
2.09

allows per match

Hammarby W
1.03
Växjö W
2.10

finishing

Hammarby W+0.35scores more
Växjö W-0.09on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Växjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
72%
Hammarby W or Växjö W
79%
Draw or Växjö W
49%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
30%
Växjö W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
88%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
63%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
35%
Växjö W 1+ goals
79%
Växjö W 2+ goals
46%
Växjö W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
64%
Växjö W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.03 · 8 matches

Växjö W away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.15 + Växjö W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Växjö W attack 2.09 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hammarby W scores more
51%
level
21%
Växjö W scores more
28%

Hammarby W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hammarby W have won 7 of the last 8 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches
  • Växjö W win just 14% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 4.4 goals
  • Hammarby W fall short of their xG (2.1 vs 2.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
Växjö W
Balanced
60%Possession50%
83%Pass accuracy78%
14.7Shots13.8
2.43xGBiggest gap1.79
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Hammarby WVäxjö W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

7
Hammarby W
0
Draws
1
Växjö W
Avg goals: 4.4BTTS: 63%
7–04–14–11–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DWLWW
W
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hammarby W host Växjö W

July 31, 2026: Hammarby W take on Växjö W in Damallsvenskan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hammarby W host Växjö W at Hammarby IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.