Hammarby W 6–1 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Hammarby W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Växjö W

T. Johansson 79' (OG)

M. Vinberg 60'

J. Roddar 56'

M. Hamano 46', 18'

J. Andersson 27'

O. Mattsson 24'

4/15/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 3Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby W51%

×Draw21%

Växjö W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.56

Hammarby W

2.13

Växjö W

1.56

Hammarby W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.15

creates per match

2.09

1.03

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Hammarby W

2.15

Växjö W

2.09

allows per match

Hammarby W

1.03

Växjö W

2.10

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Hammarby W+0.35scores more

Växjö W-0.09on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

72%

Hammarby W or Växjö W

79%

Draw or Växjö W

49%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

30%

Växjö W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

88%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

63%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

35%

Växjö W 1+ goals

79%

Växjö W 2+ goals

46%

Växjö W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

64%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.03 · 8 matches

Växjö W away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.15 + Växjö W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Växjö W attack 2.09 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hammarby W scores more

51%

level

21%

Växjö W scores more

28%

Hammarby W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

27'

46'

56'

60'

66'

H. Ellingsen← O. Mattsson

69'

T. Sørbo← E. Westin

69'

H. Folkesson← J. Roddar

69'

V. Hasund← L. Ökvist

77'

S. Fornes← M. Vinberg

79'

T. JohanssonOwn goal

81'

E. Gibson← S. Boye

Hammarby

Växjö

1

3

5

4

8

⚽

▼

Mattsson

6

Jonasson

33

Nilsson

17

🥅

19

9

10

1

25

⚽

Andersson

5

▼

Boye

6

⚽

▼

Roddar

3

▼

Ökvist

23

▼

Westin

18

Carlsson

13

⚽

▼

Vinberg

9

Janogy

10

Cooney-Cr

14

⚽2

Hamano

Manager: P. Piñones-Arce

69'▲T. Sørbo←▼E. Westin

69'▲H. Folkesson←▼J. Roddar

69'▲V. Hasund←▼L. Ökvist

77'▲S. Fornes←▼M. Vinberg

81'▲E. Gibson←▼S. Boye

Hammarby W substitutes

4Sørbo17Folkesson20Hasund21Fornes8Gibson29Edrud31Holmberg

Manager: O. Unogård

66'▲H. Ellingsen←▼O. Mattsson

Växjö W substitutes

77Ellingsen14Thomsen15Kemppi21Dupuy26Rosita93Davidsson97Nilsson