Hammarby W vs Djurgården W: Preview & Prediction

Hammarby W

Preview

13:00

Djurgården W

10/24/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 23Hammarby IP

Big match

57%

Hammarby W

model favours

57%22%21%

Djurgården W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby W57%

×Draw22%

Djurgården W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchDjurgården W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.09

Hammarby W

1.92

Djurgården W

1.09

Hammarby W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

1.21

0.98

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hammarby W

2.14

Djurgården W

1.21

allows per match

Hammarby W

0.98

Djurgården W

1.69

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Hammarby W+0.16scores more

Djurgården W-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Djurgården W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

79%

Hammarby W or Djurgården W

78%

Draw or Djurgården W

43%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

33%

Djurgården W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

85%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

57%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

30%

Djurgården W 1+ goals

66%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

30%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

73%

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.14 + Djurgården W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Djurgården W attack 1.21 + Hammarby W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hammarby W scores more

57%

level

22%

Djurgården W scores more

21%

Hammarby W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches
Hammarby W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Djurgården W win just 18% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Hammarby W play Possession-dominant, Djurgården W Defensively solid
Hammarby W sit 2, Djurgården W 13 in the table