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Hammarby W vs Djurgården W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Djurgården W
Djurgården W
J. Blakstad 90'
A. Miyagawa 3'
T. Asland 77' (pen)
6/16/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 11Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hammarby W65%
×Draw20%
Djurgården W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
2.07
Djurgården W
0.86

Hammarby W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.34
Djurgården W
0.91

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.81
Djurgården W
1.80

finishing

Hammarby W+0.00on par
Djurgården W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Djurgården W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
85%
Hammarby W or Djurgården W
80%
Draw or Djurgården W
35%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
41%
Djurgården W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
87%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
61%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
34%
Djurgården W 1+ goals
58%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
21%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
82%
Djurgården W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.34 + Djurgården W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.07

Djurgården W attack 0.91 + Hammarby W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hammarby W scores more
65%
level
20%
Djurgården W scores more
15%

Hammarby W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41
J. BlakstadHammarby WHammarby W · D
8.7

Match Events

3'
A. Miyagawa↳ S. Holmberg
42'
Emilie Joramo
60'
M. Larsson← U. Watanabe
71'
A. Josendal← V. Hasund
77'
T. AslandPenalty
85'
A. Jonasson← E. Pelgander
85'
L. Duras← T. Almqvist
88'
N. Nadim← S. Vallotto
90+2'
B. Andersson← E. Wangerheim
90+1'
S. Yekka← A. Lobanova
90+1'
E. Westlund← O. Ulenius
90'
J. Blakstad↳ E. Joramo

Possession

56%Hammarby

Shots

20Hammarby

Pass accuracy

53%Hammarby

Statistics

HammarbyDjurgården
Overview
56%Possession44%
20Total Shots5
2.20Expected Goals (xG)1.17
12Corners3
10Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots5
6On Target2
7Off Target3
7Blocked0
12Inside Box4
8Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
471Total Passes354
398Accurate Passes270
85%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Damallsvenskan: Hammarby W 2–1 Djurgården W

Hammarby W beat Djurgården W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on June 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Miyagawa (3'), T. Asland (77' pen), J. Blakstad (90').

Hammarby W controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.