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Hammarby W vs Djurgården W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Djurgården W
Djurgården W
A. Jøsendal 85', 78'
A. Carlsson 32'
E. Wangerheim 29'
T. Almqvist 21'
5/4/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 4Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby W56%
×Draw22%
Djurgården W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
1.93
Djurgården W
1.11

Hammarby W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.16
Djurgården W
1.21

allows per match

Hammarby W
1.01
Djurgården W
1.69

finishing

Hammarby W+0.41scores more
Djurgården W-0.41scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Djurgården W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
78%
Hammarby W or Djurgården W
78%
Draw or Djurgården W
44%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
33%
Djurgården W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
85%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
57%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
30%
Djurgården W 1+ goals
67%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
30%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
72%
Djurgården W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.16 + Djurgården W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.93

Djurgården W attack 1.21 + Hammarby W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hammarby W scores more
56%
level
22%
Djurgården W scores more
22%

Hammarby W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. VallottoHammarby WHammarby W · M
8.6

Match Events

21'
T. Almqvist
29'
E. Wangerheim
32'
A. Carlsson
67'
I. Vårhus← M. Brochmann
73'
T. Sørbo← J. Roddar
73'
S. Holmberg← S. Lennartsson
78'
A. Jøsendal
79'
L. Duras← Ana Teles
85'
V. Hasund← S. Vallotto
85'
E. Westin← E. Wangerheim
85'
A. Jøsendal
87'
Therese Åsland
88'
B. Andersson← E. Nyström

Possession

55%Hammarby

Shots

20Hammarby

Pass accuracy

50%Hammarby

Statistics

HammarbyDjurgården
Overview
55%Possession45%
20Total Shots14
2.99Expected Goals (xG)1.33
4Corners3
8Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots14
12On Target5
4Off Target5
3Blocked3
14Inside Box7
6Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
478Total Passes420
400Accurate Passes351
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hammarby W vs Djurgården W

Hammarby W beat Djurgården W 4-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 4, 2024.

Goals: T. Almqvist (21'), E. Wangerheim (29'), A. Carlsson (32'), A. Jøsendal (78', 85').

Hammarby W controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.