Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammarby Talang vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Hammarby Talang
Hammarby Talang
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
5/30/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 10Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hammarby Talang50%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby Talang
2.12
AFC Eskilstuna
1.56

Hammarby Talang creates 36% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hammarby Talang
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Hammarby Talang
1.35
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Hammarby Talang+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby Talang ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hammarby Talang or draw
71%
Hammarby Talang or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Hammarby Talang wins by 2+
30%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hammarby Talang 1+ goals
88%
Hammarby Talang 2+ goals
62%
Hammarby Talang 3+ goals
35%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
46%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hammarby Talang (draw refunded)
64%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby Talang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby Talang attack 1.85 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Hammarby Talang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hammarby Talang scores more
50%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
29%

Hammarby Talang at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hammarby Talang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Hammarby Talang 1–2 AFC Eskilstuna

AFC Eskilstuna beat Hammarby Talang 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.