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AFC Eskilstuna vs Hammarby Talang — Ettan - Norra 2019

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby Talang
Hammarby Talang
5/3/2024Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 6Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna35%
×Draw24%
Hammarby Talang41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.46
Hammarby Talang
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 83 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.68
Hammarby Talang
1.58

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Hammarby Talang
1.25

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Hammarby Talang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Hammarby Talang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
59%
AFC Eskilstuna or Hammarby Talang
76%
Draw or Hammarby Talang
65%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
16%
Hammarby Talang wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
77%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
43%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%
Hammarby Talang 1+ goals
79%
Hammarby Talang 2+ goals
47%
Hammarby Talang 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
47%
Hammarby Talang (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

Hammarby Talang away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.68 + Hammarby Talang defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hammarby Talang attack 1.58 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
35%
level
24%
Hammarby Talang scores more
41%

Hammarby Talang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hammarby Talang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: AFC Eskilstuna 0–1 Hammarby Talang

Hammarby Talang beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.