Hammarby FF 0–0 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malmo FF

5/26/2022

Svenska Cupen · FinalTele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hammarby FF38%

×Draw22%

Malmo FF40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.86

Hammarby FF

1.81

Malmo FF

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

3.05

creates per match

2.93

0.79

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Hammarby FF

3.05

Malmo FF

2.93

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.79

Malmo FF

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

60%

Hammarby FF or Malmo FF

78%

Draw or Malmo FF

62%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

20%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

84%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

54%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

27%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

84%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

55%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

49%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

38%

level

22%

Malmo FF scores more

40%

Malmo FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff