Hammarby FF 2–1 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kalmar FF

S. Tounekti 45+2'

P. Abraham 20'

A. Olusanya 13'

3/3/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 33Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hammarby FF57%

×Draw22%

Kalmar FF21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.13

Hammarby FF

2.00

Kalmar FF

1.13

Hammarby FF creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

0.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hammarby FF

3.00

Kalmar FF

2.00

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.25

Kalmar FF

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

79%

Hammarby FF or Kalmar FF

78%

Draw or Kalmar FF

43%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

34%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

86%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

59%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

32%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

68%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

31%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

73%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.00 + Kalmar FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kalmar FF attack 2.00 + Hammarby FF defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

57%

level

22%

Kalmar FF scores more

21%

Hammarby FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

20'

45+2'

56'

57'

57'

A. Motaraghebjafarpour← L. Sætra

60'

I. Fofana← A. Boudah

60'

J. Erabi← Montader Madjed

69'

G. Sosseh← William Andersson

81'

J. Karlsson← P. Abraham

86'

A. Kujundžić← S. Ylätupa

88'

A. Lahdo← S. Tounekti

Hammarby

Kalmar

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tounekti

⚽

▼

Abraham

▼

Madjed

Manager: K. Hellberg

60'▲I. Fofana←▼A. Boudah

60'▲J. Erabi←▼Montader Madjed

81'▲J. Karlsson←▼P. Abraham

88'▲A. Lahdo←▼S. Tounekti

Hammarby FF substitutes

17Fofana9Erabi13Karlsson40LahdoAkimey27Jakobsson31Kanga29Kaboré44Uhrström

Manager: T. Koskela

57'▲A. Keita←▼I. Atanga

57'▲A. Motaraghebjafarpour←▼L. Sætra

69'▲G. Sosseh←▼William Andersson

86'▲A. Kujundžić←▼S. Ylätupa

Kalmar FF substitutes

KeitaMotaraghebjafarpourSossehKujundžićDavoudi-KiaKindbergNilsson

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF

Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Olusanya (13'), P. Abraham (20'), S. Tounekti (45+2').

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.

Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF