Hammarby FF 3–1 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kalmar FF

J. Erabi 82'

R. Sjöstedt 17' (OG)

N. Besara 14'

M. Hallberg 25'

3/31/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hammarby FF63%

×Draw20%

Kalmar FF17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.03

Hammarby FF

2.16

Kalmar FF

1.03

Hammarby FF creates 110% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

2.56

creates per match

1.42

0.64

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hammarby FF

2.56

Kalmar FF

1.42

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.64

Kalmar FF

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

83%

Hammarby FF or Kalmar FF

80%

Draw or Kalmar FF

37%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

40%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

88%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

63%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

36%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

64%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

28%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

79%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.56 + Kalmar FF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Kalmar FF attack 1.42 + Hammarby FF defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

63%

level

20%

Kalmar FF scores more

17%

Hammarby FF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Besara

Hammarby FF · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

N. Besara↳ D. Gül

17'

R. SjöstedtOwn goal

25'

M. Hallberg

58'

Romário← J. Ring

58'

A. Gersbach← R. Sjöstedt

60'

J. Erabi← D. Gül

60'

A. Boudah← V. Đukanović

66'

Erik Skoglund

67'

Abdussalam Magashy

69'

S. Strand← H. Skoglund

72'

K. Jensen← A. Magashy

79'

E. Kurtulus← T. Tekie

82'

J. Erabi↳ N. Besara

83'

D. Islamović← S. Skrabb

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyKalmar

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots12

1.95Expected Goals (xG)0.98

3Corners4

9Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target6

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

606Total Passes417

541Accurate Passes348

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5