Hammarby FF 3–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Degerfors IF

J. Nilsson 62'

V. Đukanović 60'

N. Besara 22'

C. Gravius 28'

4/2/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hammarby FF61%

×Draw20%

Degerfors IF19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.15

Hammarby FF

2.18

Degerfors IF

1.15

Hammarby FF creates 90% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

2.36

creates per match

1.55

0.74

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Hammarby FF

2.36

Degerfors IF

1.55

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.74

Degerfors IF

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

81%

Hammarby FF or Degerfors IF

80%

Draw or Degerfors IF

39%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

38%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

89%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

64%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

37%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

68%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

32%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

76%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.36 + Degerfors IF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Degerfors IF attack 1.55 + Hammarby FF defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

61%

level

20%

Degerfors IF scores more

19%

Hammarby FF at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Fenger

Hammarby FF · D

8.2

Match Events

22'

28'

43'

60'

62'

J. Nilsson↳ S. Strand

69'

O. Wallin← G. Granath

69'

F. Bassey← D. Vukojević

71'

J. Erabi← V. Đukanović

71'

M. Madjed← J. Nilsson

73'

Damjan Pavlović

81'

A. Demirol← A. Saidi

81'

N. Adjei← M. Fenger

81'

E. Lindell← K. Mammar

81'

J. Salmon← D. Pavlović

88'

A. Kralj← N. Besara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyDegerfors

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots15

8Corners7

4Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots15

6On Target5

11Off Target4

6Blocked6

12Inside Box7

11Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

632Total Passes332

570Accurate Passes266

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF

Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on April 2, 2023.

Goals: N. Besara (22'), C. Gravius (28'), V. Đukanović (60'), J. Nilsson (62').

Hammarby FF controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 15.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.

Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF