Degerfors IF 1–1 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby FF

E. Barsoum 81'

A. Lahdo 57'

11/3/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 29Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Degerfors IF22%

×Draw26%

Hammarby FF52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.52

Degerfors IF

0.89

Hammarby FF

1.52

Hammarby FF creates 71% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

0.65

creates per match

1.42

1.61

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Degerfors IF

0.65

Hammarby FF

1.42

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.61

Hammarby FF

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

48%

Degerfors IF or Hammarby FF

74%

Draw or Hammarby FF

78%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

7%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

59%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

22%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

6%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

78%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

45%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

30%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 0.65 + Hammarby FF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Hammarby FF attack 1.42 + Degerfors IF defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

22%

level

26%

Hammarby FF scores more

52%

Hammarby FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

P. Ndinga

Degerfors IF · D

7.5

Match Events

57'

A. Lahdo↳ M. Madjed

64'

E. Barsoum← M. Rafferty

65'

O. Okeke← A. Lahdo

74'

O. Johansson← M. Madjed

74'

J. Ortmark← F. Junior Adjei

75'

M. Kabore← P. Abraham

77'

R. Omorowa← C. Gravius

81'

E. Barsoum↳ D. Sundgren

83'

S. Strand← N. Besara

86'

Leon Hien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsHammarby

Overview

30%Possession70%

12Total Shots11

1.01Expected Goals (xG)1.21

3Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

30%Possession70%

256Total Passes591

175Accurate Passes505

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1