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Hammarby FF vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
7/23/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hammarby FF62%
×Draw21%
Dalkurd FF17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.99
Dalkurd FF
0.91

Hammarby FF creates 119% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
2.25
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

Hammarby FF
1.01
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
83%
Hammarby FF or Dalkurd FF
79%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
38%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
38%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
86%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
59%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
32%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
60%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
23%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
79%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
62%
level
21%
Dalkurd FF scores more
17%

Hammarby FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 4–1 Dalkurd FF

Hammarby FF beat Dalkurd FF 4-1 in Allsvenskan on July 23, 2018.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.