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Dalkurd FF vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
8/27/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF28%
×Draw23%
Hammarby FF49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.27
Hammarby FF
1.76

Hammarby FF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
Hammarby FF
1.45

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
Hammarby FF
1.33

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
51%
Dalkurd FF or Hammarby FF
77%
Draw or Hammarby FF
72%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
12%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
72%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
14%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
83%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
52%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
36%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
28%
level
23%
Hammarby FF scores more
49%

Hammarby FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Dalkurd FF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on August 27, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.