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Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2026

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
9/21/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 243Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hammarby FF49%
×Draw24%
BK Hacken27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.73
BK Hacken
1.21

Hammarby FF creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
1.71
BK Hacken
1.63

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
BK Hacken
1.74

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.89scores more
BK Hacken+0.08on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
73%
Hammarby FF or BK Hacken
76%
Draw or BK Hacken
51%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
27%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
82%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
52%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
25%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
70%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
34%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
65%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 10 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.71 + BK Hacken defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

BK Hacken attack 1.63 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
49%
level
24%
BK Hacken scores more
27%

Hammarby FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 4–0 BK Hacken

Hammarby FF beat BK Hacken 4-0 in Allsvenskan on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.