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BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2026

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
5/31/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Nordic Wellness Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BK Hacken35%
×Draw25%
Hammarby FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
1.33
Hammarby FF
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
1.65
Hammarby FF
1.21

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.67
Hammarby FF
1.01

finishing

BK Hacken+0.06on par
Hammarby FF-0.08on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
60%
BK Hacken or Hammarby FF
75%
Draw or Hammarby FF
65%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
15%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
74%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
38%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
15%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
76%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
42%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
47%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.67 · 7 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.65 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hammarby FF attack 1.21 + BK Hacken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BK Hacken scores more
35%
level
25%
Hammarby FF scores more
40%

Hammarby FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: BK Hacken 3–2 Hammarby FF

BK Hacken beat Hammarby FF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Nordic Wellness Arena in Gothenburg.