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HamKam II vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
3 – 4
Hødd II
Hødd II
6/4/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 8HIAS-Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II64%
×Draw16%
Hødd II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
3.17
Hødd II
1.79

HamKam II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

HamKam II
3.46
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

HamKam II
1.85
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
80%
HamKam II or Hødd II
84%
Draw or Hødd II
36%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
45%
Hødd II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
96%
HamKam II 2+ goals
82%
HamKam II 3+ goals
60%
Hødd II 1+ goals
83%
Hødd II 2+ goals
53%
Hødd II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
76%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 3.17

Hødd II attack 1.73 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

HamKam II scores more
64%
level
16%
Hødd II scores more
20%

HamKam II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: HamKam II 3–4 Hødd II

Hødd II beat HamKam II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at HIAS-Bana in Ottestad, Stange.