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Hødd II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
HamKam II
HamKam II
8/28/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 17Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II46%
×Draw20%
HamKam II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.33
HamKam II
2.02

Hødd II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
65%
Hødd II or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
54%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
27%
HamKam II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
90%
Hødd II 2+ goals
67%
Hødd II 3+ goals
41%
HamKam II 1+ goals
87%
HamKam II 2+ goals
60%
HamKam II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
57%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.33

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hødd II scores more
46%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
35%

Hødd II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Hødd II 0–4 HamKam II

HamKam II beat Hødd II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.