Hamilton Olympic 3–3 Edgeworth Eagles

Hamilton Olympic

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Edgeworth Eagles

4/25/2026

Northern NSW NPL · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hamilton Olympic35%

×Draw22%

Edgeworth Eagles43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton OlympicExpected goals in this matchEdgeworth Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.88

Hamilton Olympic

1.70

Edgeworth Eagles

1.88

Edgeworth Eagles creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

1.91

creates per match

2.02

1.73

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.91

Edgeworth Eagles

2.02

allows per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.73

Edgeworth Eagles

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Olympic ↓

Edgeworth Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hamilton Olympic or draw

57%

Hamilton Olympic or Edgeworth Eagles

78%

Draw or Edgeworth Eagles

65%

Winning margin

Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+

18%

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals

82%

Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals

51%

Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals

24%

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals

85%

Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals

56%

Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)

45%

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.73 · 78 matches

Edgeworth Eagles away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.91 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.70

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.02 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hamilton Olympic scores more

35%

level

22%

Edgeworth Eagles scores more

43%

Edgeworth Eagles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Edgeworth Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff