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Edgeworth Eagles vs Hamilton Olympic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Edgeworth Eagles
Edgeworth Eagles
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hamilton Olympic
Hamilton Olympic
4/26/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 9Jack McLaughlan Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Edgeworth Eagles50%
×Draw23%
Hamilton Olympic26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edgeworth Eagles
1.78
Hamilton Olympic
1.22

Edgeworth Eagles creates 46% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

creates per match

Edgeworth Eagles
2.11
Hamilton Olympic
1.59

allows per match

Edgeworth Eagles
0.85
Hamilton Olympic
1.46

finishing

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par
Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edgeworth Eagles ↓

Hamilton Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Edgeworth Eagles or draw
74%
Edgeworth Eagles or Hamilton Olympic
77%
Draw or Hamilton Olympic
50%

Winning margin

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+
28%
Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals
83%
Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals
53%
Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals
26%
Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals
70%
Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals
34%
Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)
66%
Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edgeworth Eagles at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

Hamilton Olympic away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.11 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.78

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.59 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Edgeworth Eagles scores more
50%
level
23%
Hamilton Olympic scores more
26%

Edgeworth Eagles at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Edgeworth Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Edgeworth Eagles 3–0 Hamilton Olympic

Edgeworth Eagles beat Hamilton Olympic 3-0 in Northern NSW NPL on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Jack McLaughlan Oval in Newcastle.