Hamilton Olympic 4–2 Cooks Hill United

Hamilton Olympic

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cooks Hill United

2/15/2025

Northern NSW NPL · Round 1Darling Street Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hamilton Olympic42%

×Draw22%

Cooks Hill United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton OlympicExpected goals in this matchCooks Hill United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.79

Hamilton Olympic

1.94

Cooks Hill United

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

1.91

creates per match

1.85

1.73

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.91

Cooks Hill United

1.85

allows per match

Hamilton Olympic

1.73

Cooks Hill United

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Olympic ↓

Cooks Hill United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hamilton Olympic or draw

64%

Hamilton Olympic or Cooks Hill United

78%

Draw or Cooks Hill United

58%

Winning margin

Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+

23%

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals

86%

Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals

58%

Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals

30%

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals

83%

Cooks Hill United 2+ goals

53%

Cooks Hill United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)

54%

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.73 · 78 matches

Cooks Hill United away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.91 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.94

Cooks Hill United attack 1.85 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamilton Olympic scores more

42%

level

22%

Cooks Hill United scores more

36%

Hamilton Olympic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamilton Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff