Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cooks Hill United vs Hamilton Olympic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Hamilton Olympic
Hamilton Olympic
7/30/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 12Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cooks Hill United39%
×Draw23%
Hamilton Olympic38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cooks Hill United
1.65
Hamilton Olympic
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cooks Hill United
1.83
Hamilton Olympic
1.59

allows per match

Cooks Hill United
1.69
Hamilton Olympic
1.46

finishing

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par
Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cooks Hill United ↓

Hamilton Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cooks Hill United or draw
62%
Cooks Hill United or Hamilton Olympic
77%
Draw or Hamilton Olympic
61%

Winning margin

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
19%
Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
81%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
49%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
23%
Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals
81%
Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals
49%
Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
50%
Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cooks Hill United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Hamilton Olympic away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cooks Hill United attack 1.83 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.59 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cooks Hill United scores more
39%
level
23%
Hamilton Olympic scores more
38%

Cooks Hill United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cooks Hill United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Cooks Hill United 1–4 Hamilton Olympic

Hamilton Olympic beat Cooks Hill United 4-1 in Northern NSW NPL on July 30, 2025.

The match was played at Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre in Newcastle.