Hamilton Academical 1–0 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunfermline

S. McKinstry 63'

2/25/2025

League #180 · Round 26New Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamilton Academical41%

×Draw28%

Dunfermline32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Hamilton Academical

1.29

Dunfermline

1.10

Hamilton Academical creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

0.54

1.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Dunfermline

0.54

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.67

Dunfermline

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

68%

Hamilton Academical or Dunfermline

72%

Draw or Dunfermline

59%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

18%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

72%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

37%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

14%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

67%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

30%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

56%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Dunfermline defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dunfermline attack 0.54 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

41%

level

28%

Dunfermline scores more

32%

Hamilton Academical at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Smith← J. Barjonas

56'

C. Young← D. Wotherspoon

63'

S. McKinstry↳ O. Shaw

70'

S. Bradley

75'

K. O'Hara← S. Bradley

80'

E. Henderson← S. McKinstry

81'

O. Taylor-Clarke← T. Oakley-Boothe

84'

C. Smith

84'

L. McCann

85'

S. Hendrie← T. Gallacher

85'

C. Telfer← S. Robinson

90+4'

O. Shaw

90+4'

J. Chilokoa-Mullen

Hamilton

Dunfermline

21

4

6

48

3

19

▼

Wotherspo

35

▼

5

11

14

34

21

5

22

30

▼

Gallacher

10

▼

Barjonas

14

Maguire

16

MacDonald

24

⚽

▼

McKinstry

17

▼

Robinson

19

A

Shaw

11

▼

Bradley

Manager: J. Rankin

46'▲C. Smith←▼J. Barjonas

75'▲K. O'Hara←▼S. Bradley

80'▲E. Henderson←▼S. McKinstry

85'▲S. Hendrie←▼T. Gallacher

85'▲C. Telfer←▼S. Robinson

Hamilton Academical substitutes

13Smith9O'Hara7Henderson33Hendrie25Telfer6McGowan18Todorov1Albinson3Longridge

Manager: M. Tidser

56'▲C. Young←▼D. Wotherspoon

81'▲O. Taylor-Clarke←▼T. Oakley-Boothe

Dunfermline substitutes

17Young45Taylor-Clarke22Clay41Hogarth26Tod8Chalmers16Fogarty