Hamilton Academical 1–0 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunfermline

R. Tumilty 26'

8/24/2024

League #180 · Round 3ZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamilton Academical39%

×Draw27%

Dunfermline33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Hamilton Academical

1.29

Dunfermline

1.16

Hamilton Academical creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.64

1.67

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Dunfermline

0.64

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.67

Dunfermline

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

67%

Hamilton Academical or Dunfermline

73%

Draw or Dunfermline

61%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

18%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

72%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

37%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

14%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

69%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

32%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

54%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Dunfermline defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dunfermline attack 0.64 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

39%

level

27%

Dunfermline scores more

33%

Hamilton Academical at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

R. Tumilty↳ J. Barjonas

38'

46'

49'

53'

57'

61'

J. Cooper← K. Ngwenya

63'

J. Chalmers← K. Benedictus

71'

T. Sutherland← C. Kane

72'

C. Wighton← K. Ritchie-Hosler

74'

E. Henderson← S. Martin

85'

N. Todorov← O. Shaw

90+4'

C. Murray← J. Barjonas

Hamilton

Dunfermline

1

Mehmet

4

▼

Benedictu

2

Comrie

15

▼

Fisher

6

Otoo

3

▼

Ngwenya

19

Wotherspo

5

Hamilton

7

▼

Ritchie-H

20

▼

11

1

5

33

22

⚽

Tumilty

8

▼

Martin

10

A

▼

14

16

20

9

19

▼

Shaw

Manager: J. Rankin

74'▲E. Henderson←▼S. Martin

85'▲N. Todorov←▼O. Shaw

90+4'▲C. Murray←▼J. Barjonas

Hamilton Academical substitutes

7Henderson18Todorov17Murray26Newbury27Morgan3Longridge21Lyness31Lane4Kilday

Manager: J. McPake

46'▲S. Young←▼S. Fisher

61'▲J. Cooper←▼K. Ngwenya

63'▲J. Chalmers←▼K. Benedictus

71'▲T. Sutherland←▼C. Kane

72'▲C. Wighton←▼K. Ritchie-Hosler

Dunfermline substitutes

25Young33Cooper8Chalmers24Sutherland9Wighton23O'Halloran26Tod12Breen21Oluwayemi