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Hamilton Academical vs Airdrie United — League Cup 2018

Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Airdrie United
Airdrie United
7/28/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8The Hope CBD Stadium (Hamilton)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical45%
×Draw23%
Airdrie United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Academical
1.80
Airdrie United
1.47

Hamilton Academical creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hamilton Academical
1.50
Airdrie United
1.56

allows per match

Hamilton Academical
1.38
Airdrie United
2.11

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par
Airdrie United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Airdrie United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw
68%
Hamilton Academical or Airdrie United
77%
Draw or Airdrie United
55%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
24%
Airdrie United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
83%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
54%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
27%
Airdrie United 1+ goals
77%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
43%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
59%
Airdrie United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Airdrie United away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Airdrie United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Airdrie United attack 1.56 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more
45%
level
23%
Airdrie United scores more
32%

Hamilton Academical at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamilton Academical vs Airdrie United

Hamilton Academical and Airdrie United drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at The Hope CBD Stadium (Hamilton).