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Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical — FA Cup 2019

Airdrie United
Airdrie Unitedadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
11/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64Albert Bartlett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Airdrie United55%
×Draw25%
Hamilton Academical20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Airdrie United
1.63
Hamilton Academical
0.88

Airdrie United creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Airdrie United
1.50
Hamilton Academical
0.50

allows per match

Airdrie United
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.75

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw
80%
Airdrie United or Hamilton Academical
75%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
45%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+
30%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals
80%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
48%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
22%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
59%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
22%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)
73%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 1.50 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hamilton Academical attack 0.50 + Airdrie United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Airdrie United scores more
55%
level
25%
Hamilton Academical scores more
20%

Airdrie United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Airdrie United 4–0 Hamilton Academical

Airdrie United beat Hamilton Academical 4-0 in FA Cup on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Albert Bartlett Stadium in Airdrie.