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Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
R. Glatzel 20', 13'
S. Kerk 22'
5/7/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Hamburger SV51%
×Draw23%
Hannover 9626%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.82
Hannover 96
1.23

Hamburger SV creates 48% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
Hannover 96
1.39

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.08
Hannover 96
1.52

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
74%
Hamburger SV or Hannover 96
77%
Draw or Hannover 96
49%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
28%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
54%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
27%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
71%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
35%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
66%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.08 · 113 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Hannover 96 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hannover 96 attack 1.39 + Hamburger SV defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
51%
level
23%
Hannover 96 scores more
26%

Hamburger SV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. GlatzelHamburger SVHamburger SV · F
8.9

Match Events

13'
R. Glatzel↳ B. Jatta
20'
R. Glatzel↳ B. Jatta
22'
S. Kerk↳ M. Beier
39'
Gaël Ondoua
44'
Mark Diemers
44'
Sebastian Kerk
63'
Jonas Meffert
68'
M. Kaufmann← S. Kittel
73'
C. Teuchert← L. Maina
74'
F. Alidou← A. Suhonen
79'
L. Hinterseer← H. Weydandt
80'
J. Gyamerah← J. Vagnoman
84'
D. Kaiser← G. Ondoua

Possession

47%Hamburger

Shots

23Hamburger

Pass accuracy

50%Hamburger

Statistics

HamburgerHannover
Overview
47%Possession53%
23Total Shots12
3Corners8
15Fouls12
Shots
23Total Shots12
6On Target3
12Off Target5
5Blocked4
14Inside Box8
9Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
360Total Passes405
289Accurate Passes329
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 2–1 Hannover 96

Hamburger SV beat Hannover 96 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 7, 2022.

Goals: R. Glatzel (13', 20'), S. Kerk (22').

Hannover 96 controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 23.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.