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Hamburger SV vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
T. Leibold 90+2'
S. Terodde 82', 65'
L. Dietz 40'
10/24/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hamburger SV60%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
2.00
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.02

Hamburger SV creates 96% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.11
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
81%
Hamburger SV or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
40%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
36%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
86%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
59%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
32%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
64%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
27%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
76%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 116 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
60%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
19%

Hamburger SV at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. TeroddeHamburger SVHamburger SV · F
8.7

Match Events

37'
Patrick Sontheimer
40'
L. Dietz↳ D. Baumann
45'
Sonny Kittel
46'
A. Onana← G. Jung
64'
F. Ronstadt← M. Lotrič
65'
S. Terodde
69'
L. Hemmerich← D. Kopacz
74'
Dominic Baumann
79'
D. Kinsombi← J. Gyamerah
79'
J. Vagnoman← M. Wintzheimer
80'
H. Hansen← D. Baumann
82'
S. Terodde
83'
Hendrik Hansen
84'
K. Gjasula← A. Hunt
90+2'
T. Leibold

Possession

65%Hamburger

Shots

21Hamburger

Pass accuracy

54%Hamburger

Statistics

HamburgerFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
21Total Shots8
9Corners3
9Fouls7
Shots
21Total Shots8
4On Target1
13Off Target4
4Blocked3
13Inside Box3
8Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
557Total Passes306
487Accurate Passes224
87%Pass Accuracy73%
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

Hamburger SV beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on October 24, 2020.

Goals: L. Dietz (40'), S. Terodde (65', 82'), T. Leibold (90+2').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (65%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.