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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
P. Sontheimer 54'
Douglas 30'
M. Hasek 19'
B. Wood 89'
J. Dudziak 72'
2/21/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers28%
×Draw23%
Hamburger SV49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.34
Hamburger SV
1.84

Hamburger SV creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 116 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.29
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.94
Hamburger SV
1.40

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
51%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Hamburger SV
77%
Draw or Hamburger SV
72%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
12%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
74%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
39%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
15%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
55%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
36%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.40 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.29 + Hamburger SV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
28%
level
23%
Hamburger SV scores more
49%

Hamburger SV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
DouglasFC Wurzburger KickersFC Wurzburger Kickers · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
M. Hasek
30'
Douglas↳ M. Pieringer
45'
Amadou Onana
46'
J. Dudziak← K. Narey
46'
M. Wintzheimer← A. Hunt
54'
P. Sontheimer↳ M. Lotrič
69'
O. Heil← S. Kittel
72'
J. Dudziak↳ S. Terodde
79'
D. Baumann← R. Munsy
79'
D. Kopacz← M. Lotrič
81'
J. Vagnoman← J. Gyamerah
82'
B. Wood← D. Kinsombi
86'
R. van La Parra← M. Pieringer
89'
B. Wood↳ J. Vagnoman
90'
Amadou Onana
90'
Amadou Onana
90+1'
L. Dietz← P. Sontheimer

Possession

34%FC

Shots

11FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCHamburger
Overview
34%Possession66%
11Total Shots7
5Corners5
16Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots7
6On Target4
4Off Target2
1Blocked1
5Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
34%Possession66%
256Total Passes503
173Accurate Passes403
68%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–2 Hamburger SV

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Hamburger SV 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on February 21, 2021.

Goals: M. Hasek (19'), Douglas (30'), P. Sontheimer (54'), J. Dudziak (72'), B. Wood (89').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (66%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.