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Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
1/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Hamburger SV61%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Braunschweig18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
2.06
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02

Hamburger SV creates 102% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 87 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.99

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
82%
Hamburger SV or Eintracht Braunschweig
79%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
39%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
37%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
87%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
61%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
34%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
64%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
27%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
77%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.06

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
61%
level
21%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
18%

Hamburger SV at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig

Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 4-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.