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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
4/27/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 31Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig32%
×Draw25%
Hamburger SV43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.30
Hamburger SV
1.56

Hamburger SV creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.74

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Hamburger SV
1.39

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
57%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Hamburger SV
75%
Draw or Hamburger SV
68%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
14%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
73%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
37%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
14%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
79%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
46%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
42%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
32%
level
25%
Hamburger SV scores more
43%

Hamburger SV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.