Hamburger SV U19 1–1 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Osnabrück U19

L. Borges 89'

T. Bovenschulte 71'

2/23/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hamburger SV U1959%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.50

Hamburger SV U19

2.50

Osnabrück U19

1.50

Hamburger SV U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

2.49

creates per match

1.29

1.71

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

78%

Hamburger SV U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

41%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

38%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

92%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

71%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

45%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

78%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

44%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.50

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

22%

Hamburger SV U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

E. Krasniqi← J. Fabisch

70'

T. Bovenschulte← H. Traoré

71'

T. Bovenschulte

77'

T. Fagerström← P. Beke

78'

86'

89'

90+2'

Hamburger

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Petrowsky

55'▲E. Krasniqi←▼J. Fabisch

77'▲T. Fagerström←▼P. Beke

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

KrasniqiFagerströmHeinHegerfeldtAmorinMuhlackBrandis

Manager: M. Tredup

70'▲T. Bovenschulte←▼H. Traoré

78'▲E. Ghassan←▼G. Baya

86'▲F. Onken←▼S. Burke

90+2'▲G. Firat←▼D. Lovrić

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

BovenschulteGhassanOnkenFiratPopescuAugé