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Osnabrück U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
3/2/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 19Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Osnabrück U1932%
×Draw22%
Hamburger SV U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.63
Hamburger SV U19
2.00

Hamburger SV U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 70 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.34
Hamburger SV U19
1.97

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
2.04
Hamburger SV U19
1.91

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
53%
Osnabrück U19 or Hamburger SV U19
78%
Draw or Hamburger SV U19
68%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
15%
Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
80%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
48%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
22%
Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
86%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
59%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 50 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.91 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.34 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hamburger SV U19 attack 1.97 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
32%
level
22%
Hamburger SV U19 scores more
47%

Hamburger SV U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Osnabrück U19 0–0 Hamburger SV U19

Osnabrück U19 and Hamburger SV U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.