Hamburger SV U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

BAK 07 U19

S. Nandja 70'

N. Tuppeck 11'

H. Schümann 4'

A. Keles 90+1', 21'

8/17/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hamburger SV U1961%

×Draw18%

BAK 07 U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.64

1.52

Hamburger SV U19

2.64

BAK 07 U19

1.52

Hamburger SV U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 33 away

2.49

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

79%

Hamburger SV U19 or BAK 07 U19

82%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

39%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

40%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

93%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

74%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

48%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

78%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

45%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

74%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.64

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

21%

Hamburger SV U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

H. Schümann

11'

N. Tuppeck

21'

A. Keles

64'

C. Nana-Sarhene← K. Ojo

64'

J. Ade← H. Schümann

64'

E. Sen← O. Balliu

70'

S. Nandja

75'

F. Hartmann← M. Mawd

76'

P. Quasi← D. Richardt

87'

A. Buljubašić← A. Riedel

87'

E. Jaschan← N. Tuppeck

87'

Ismaila Djamanca← J. Bugaj

87'

Y. Sambale← B. Derin

90+1'

A. Keles

Hamburger

BAK

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Schümann

▼

Riedel

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

64'▲C. Nana-Sarhene←▼K. Ojo

64'▲J. Ade←▼H. Schümann

76'▲P. Quasi←▼D. Richardt

87'▲A. Buljubašić←▼A. Riedel

87'▲E. Jaschan←▼N. Tuppeck

87'▲Ismaila Djamanca←▼J. Bugaj

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

Nana-SarheneAdeQuasiBuljubašićJaschanDjamancaLewinski

Manager: J. Eckert

64'▲E. Sen←▼O. Balliu

75'▲F. Hartmann←▼M. Mawd

87'▲Y. Sambale←▼B. Derin

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

SenHartmannSambaleBedfordDieyeYosmaDietrich

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat BAK 07 U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 17, 2024.

Goals: H. Schümann (4'), N. Tuppeck (11'), A. Keles (21', 90+1'), S. Nandja (70').

The match was played at Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10 in Norderstedt.

Hamburger SV U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 3–2 BAK 07 U19