BAK 07 U19 1–4 Hamburger SV U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Hamburger SV U19

I. Danfa 22' (pen)

A. Riedel 79', 3'

N. Tuppeck 60', 12'

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1937%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.06

BAK 07 U19

1.92

Hamburger SV U19

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 79 away

2.03

creates per match

2.10

2.03

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

58%

BAK 07 U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

63%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

85%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

57%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

30%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

87%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

61%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

42%

Hamburger SV U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Riedel

12'

N. Tuppeck

22'

I. DanfaPenalty

46'

W. Hildebrandt← O. Balliu

60'

N. Tuppeck

61'

O. Wardau

63'

J. Piecha← F. Hartmann

66'

K. Machado← C. Nana-Sarhene

73'

A. Buljubašić← M. Reimers

73'

A. Suljevic← H. Schümann

79'

A. Riedel

82'

B. Derin← J. Dietrich

85'

E. Jaschan← A. Riedel

85'

N. Adekunle← J. Nabe

88'

A. Minko← M. Mawd

88'

Bilal Youssef← A. Keles

BAK

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Eckert

46'▲W. Hildebrandt←▼O. Balliu

63'▲J. Piecha←▼F. Hartmann

82'▲B. Derin←▼J. Dietrich

88'▲A. Minko←▼M. Mawd

88'▲Bilal Youssef←▼A. Keles

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

HildebrandtPiechaDerinMinkoYoussefYosmaKopal

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

66'▲K. Machado←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

73'▲A. Buljubašić←▼M. Reimers

73'▲A. Suljevic←▼H. Schümann

85'▲E. Jaschan←▼A. Riedel

85'▲N. Adekunle←▼J. Nabe

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

MachadoBuljubašićSuljevicJaschanAdekunleBrätzBugaj

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat BAK 07 U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Riedel (3', 79'), N. Tuppeck (12', 60'), I. Danfa (22' pen).

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Hamburger SV U19