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Hambericho Durame vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame14%
×Draw26%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.57
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.48

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 160% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.23

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.02

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–119%
0–214%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
40%
Hambericho Durame or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
74%
Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
86%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
3%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
43%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
11%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
2%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
77%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
43%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
19%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.57

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
14%
level
26%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
60%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hambericho Durame 0–2 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Hambericho Durame 2-0 in Premier League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.