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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
4/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank59%
×Draw23%
Hambericho Durame18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.77
Hambericho Durame
0.85

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 108% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
82%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Hambericho Durame
77%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
41%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
34%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
83%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
53%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
26%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
57%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
21%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
77%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
59%
level
23%
Hambericho Durame scores more
18%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Hambericho Durame

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Hambericho Durame 5-1 in Premier League on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.