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Hambericho Durame vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
10/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame19%
×Draw28%
Dire Dawa Kenema53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.69
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.36

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
47%
Hambericho Durame or Dire Dawa Kenema
72%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
81%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
5%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
50%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
15%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
3%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
74%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
39%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
26%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.69

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
19%
level
28%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
53%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hambericho Durame vs Dire Dawa Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Hambericho Durame 2-1 in Premier League on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.