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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
2/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema49%
×Draw26%
Hambericho Durame25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.52
Hambericho Durame
1.01

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
75%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Hambericho Durame
74%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
51%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
25%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
78%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
45%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
20%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
64%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
27%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
66%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
49%
level
26%
Hambericho Durame scores more
25%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Hambericho Durame

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Hambericho Durame 1-0 in Premier League on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.