Hambericho Durame 0–1 Awassa Kenema: Result & Stats

Hambericho Durame

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Awassa Kenema

4/19/2024

Premier League · Round 22Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame18%

×Draw27%

Awassa Kenema55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hambericho DurameExpected goals in this matchAwassa Kenema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

1.44

Hambericho Durame

0.68

Awassa Kenema

1.44

Awassa Kenema creates 112% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

0.13

creates per match

1.14

1.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Hambericho Durame

0.13

Awassa Kenema

1.14

allows per match

Hambericho Durame

1.73

Awassa Kenema

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Awassa Kenema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw

45%

Hambericho Durame or Awassa Kenema

73%

Draw or Awassa Kenema

82%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+

5%

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals

49%

Hambericho Durame 2+ goals

15%

Hambericho Durame 3+ goals

3%

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals

76%

Awassa Kenema 2+ goals

42%

Awassa Kenema 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)

24%

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.68

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more

18%

level

27%

Awassa Kenema scores more

55%

Awassa Kenema at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff