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Awassa Kenema vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
2/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Awassa Kenema55%
×Draw25%
Hambericho Durame20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.65
Hambericho Durame
0.88

Awassa Kenema creates 88% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
80%
Awassa Kenema or Hambericho Durame
75%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
45%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
30%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
81%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
49%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
23%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
59%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
22%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
74%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
55%
level
25%
Hambericho Durame scores more
20%

Awassa Kenema at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Awassa Kenema 2 – 0 Hambericho Durame

Awassa Kenema beat Hambericho Durame 2-0 in Premier League on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.