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Halsen vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
9/4/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 18Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Halsen53%
×Draw20%
Mjøndalen II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.34
Mjøndalen II
1.66

Halsen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Mjøndalen II
1.08

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Mjøndalen II
2.77

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
73%
Halsen or Mjøndalen II
80%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
47%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
32%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
90%
Halsen 2+ goals
67%
Halsen 3+ goals
41%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
81%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
49%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
66%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.34

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Halsen scores more
53%
level
20%
Mjøndalen II scores more
27%

Halsen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halsen vs Mjøndalen II

Halsen beat Mjøndalen II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.