Halsen 3–2 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Halsen

FT

3 – 2

Mjøndalen II

9/4/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 5Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Halsen38%

×Draw22%

Mjøndalen II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalsenExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.90

Halsen

1.83

Mjøndalen II

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.50

1.29

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Halsen

2.00

Mjøndalen II

2.50

allows per match

Halsen

1.29

Mjøndalen II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Halsen or draw

59%

Halsen or Mjøndalen II

78%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

62%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+

20%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals

84%

Halsen 2+ goals

54%

Halsen 3+ goals

28%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

85%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

56%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)

48%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Mjøndalen II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mjøndalen II attack 2.50 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Halsen scores more

38%

level

22%

Mjøndalen II scores more

41%

Mjøndalen II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff